Back to SPY Signals
Upcoming Releases
Know what is coming and when. Live countdowns to the next market-moving prints:
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Analyzing macro backdrop…
Live
CPI (Y/Y)
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Core CPI (Y/Y)
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Live
PPI (Y/Y)
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FOMC
Fed Funds Rate
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CPI & PPI: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Public API · Fed Rate: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Your Playbook
Building your playbook from the latest data…
High-Impact Releases
The S&P 500 moves aggressively on macro data. Know the schedule and understand the mechanics:
- CPI & Core CPI: Inflation beats or misses reshape Federal Reserve expectations and shift equity risk premium. Watch for 0.3%+ surprises.
- PPI (Producer Price Index): Upstream price pressure often foreshadows future CPI moves. Pay attention to revisions.
- FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference: The dot plot, statement language, and Q&A can re-price terminal rate odds instantly.
- NFP & Unemployment Rate: Labor market surprises swing growth outlook and yield curve dynamics -indices follow immediately.
- GDP Reports: Quarterly growth revisions impact forward earnings estimates and market sentiment.
Pre-Release Trading Framework
Plan your trades before the data drops:
- Check Implied Move: Review weekly SPY straddle pricing to gauge expected volatility range.
- Reduce Position Size: Cut exposure by 50-70% ahead of binary events -liquidity can vanish during extreme moves.
- First Reaction vs. Real Move: Fade knee-jerk spikes that stall at key VWAP or previous day's levels.
- Volatility Crush Strategy: Post-release implied volatility collapses -consider taking profits quickly or selling premium if direction aligns.
- Wait for Confirmation: Let the initial 15-minute candle close before entering -avoid getting whipsawed by algorithmic reactions.
Essential Economic Calendars
Keep these resources readily available for real-time data:
Trading Economics
Real-time economic releases with consensus vs. actual, plus historical charts and forecasts.
CME FedWatch Tool
Live probability tracking of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions based on futures pricing.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Official source for CPI, PPI, employment data, and wage growth statistics.
ForexFactory Calendar
Color-coded impact levels showing which releases historically move markets the most.
Pro Trading Tips
- Set Price Alerts: Place alerts at key technical levels BEFORE data releases so you're ready to act.
- Know the Consensus: Market moves on surprises, not the absolute number. A "good" CPI that misses expectations can still sell off.
- Watch the Bond Market: 10-year Treasury yields often lead SPY movement after economic data -monitor TLT for clues.
- Track Revisions: Previous month's data revisions can be just as impactful as the headline number.
- Fed Speak Matters: Powell's commentary and voting member speeches can override data -stay plugged into central bank communications.