AMZN Prime Day Calendar | Blue Chip Signals

Prime Day Impact Planner

Estimate AMZN impact based on the phase of Prime Day/holiday season, promo intensity, macro tone, and portfolio size.

Event Phase:

Promo Intensity:

Demand Signals:

Macro / Risk Tone:

Portfolio Size ($):

Why Prime Day Moves AMZN

Prime Day is a margin + momentum catalyst: it drives GMV, Prime subs, advertising, and follow-on holiday demand. The market reprices AMZN on early signals of demand strength or weakness.

Early Buzz

Search trends, social chatter, and site traffic often foreshadow demand strength before AMZN releases numbers.

GMV & Mix

High-ticket electronics and owned-brand sell-through move margin expectations; weak mix can cap upside.

Logistics Signal

FC utilization, delivery promises, and shipping rebate chatter hint at cost efficiency vs. strain.

Ads & Attach

Higher ad load and attachment (Whole Foods, MGM, Alexa devices) boost ad/retail margin narrative.

Prime Day Playbook Timeline

Use this calendar to prep entries and exits around Prime Day and holiday extensions.

T-30 to -14 days

Dates Announced
Build watchlist; start small longs if macro supports. Track search trends.

T-10 to -3 days

Early Access / Teasers
Evaluate promo depth; scale in if buzz accelerates; watch options flow.

Day 1-2

Prime Day Live
Trade intraday on traffic/checkout signals; take partials into strength; trail stops.

T+1 to +7 days

Results / Press
AMZN/press GMV headlines; gauge sell-side notes; add/trim based on strength vs. expectations.

Q3 Earnings

Official Print
Final read on Prime Day contribution. Reposition for holiday/Cyber based on guide.

Signals to Monitor

Search & Social

Google Trends for "Prime Day", TikTok/YouTube haul videos, Twitter/X buzz volume.

Site & App Metrics

Page load issues, waitlists, sold-out flags, best-seller ranks shifting quickly.

Delivery Promises

Shipping promise slip or surge fees hint at strain; faster promises suggest smooth ops.

Promo Depth

Compare discounts vs. last year and vs. competitors (WMT, TGT). Heavy promos can trade margin down.

Category Mix

High-ticket electronics, devices, and subscription attach (Prime/Video/Grub) drive upside.

Options / Flow

Watch upside call buying into the event; put skew steepening signals caution.

Risk Management

Size: 1-2% pre-event; 2-4% intraday when strong signals confirm.
Stops: 1-2% for intraday trades; trail quickly after +1% move.
Options: Favor liquid weeklies/next-week calls or call spreads; avoid illiquid strikes.
Fade Risk: Strong open can fade by midday; take partials early.
Macro: Broad risk-off can blunt Prime Day upside—check SPY/QQQ tone.

Warning: Soft results headlines can reverse gains fast. Close or hedge quickly if demand commentary turns negative.

Quick Checklist

Pre-Event

Log dates, monitor search trends, compare promos vs. last year, map key levels.

During Event

Track site performance, delivery promises, social buzz, and options flow; take partials.

Post-Event

Read GMV/press notes, watch sell-side recaps, reposition for Q3 print and holiday/Cyber.

Prime Day Calendar