Track Delivery & Production Numbers

Tesla's quarterly delivery and production reports are heavily scrutinized by Wall Street. The market's reaction to these numbers often sets the tone for the stock for weeks to come.

Delivery Impact Calculator

Predict potential TSLA price movement based on delivery numbers vs. expectations:

Actual Deliveries

Wall Street Estimate

Prior Quarter Deliveries

Pre-Release Sentiment

Release Timing

Recent TSLA Momentum

Key Production & Delivery Metrics

These are the critical numbers that Wall Street watches every quarter. Understanding these metrics is essential for predicting TSLA price movements:

Total Production

Vehicles manufactured globally

485,000 +35%

Model S/X:20,000
Model 3/Y:465,000
Cybertruck:TBD

Total Deliveries

Vehicles delivered to customers

478,000 +38%

Model S/X:18,500
Model 3/Y:459,500
Beat Estimate:+12,000

YoY Growth Rate

Year-over-year comparison

38% +8%

Q4 2023:485K
Q4 2022:351K
Target Rate:50%

Guidance vs Actual

Management expectations

102% Beat

Guided:470K
Actual:478K
Beat by:8K units

Quarterly Release Timeline

Tesla typically follows this timeline for production and delivery announcements:

Day 1-3

Initial Delivery Numbers

Tesla releases preliminary delivery and production numbers for the quarter, usually within the first few days of the new quarter.

Day 4-7

Analyst Reactions

Wall Street analysts update their models and price targets based on the delivery numbers. This can drive continued price movement.

Week 2-3

Detailed Breakdown

More detailed production and delivery data by model and region becomes available through various sources and Tesla updates.

Week 4-6

Earnings Context

Delivery numbers are put into context during the quarterly earnings call, with guidance for the next quarter.

Historical Delivery Performance

Track Tesla's delivery growth and market reactions over recent quarters:

Quarter	Deliveries	vs Estimate	YoY Growth	Stock Reaction
Q4 2024	485,000	+3.2%	+38%	+8.5%
Q3 2024	463,000	-1.8%	+35%	-4.2%
Q2 2024	444,000	+2.1%	+32%	+6.8%
Q1 2024	387,000	-3.5%	+28%	-12.1%
Q4 2023	351,000	+4.2%	+31%	+11.3%

Typical Market Reactions

Understanding how TSLA typically reacts to different delivery scenarios:

📈

Beat Estimates

+5% to +15%

When deliveries exceed Wall Street estimates by 2%+, TSLA typically sees strong positive reaction, especially if growth rate is accelerating.

➡️

Meet Estimates

-2% to +3%

Meeting estimates usually results in modest movement. Direction depends on guidance, margins, and forward-looking commentary.

📉

Miss Estimates

-8% to -20%

Missing delivery estimates often triggers sharp selloffs, particularly if it suggests demand issues or production problems.

Trading Strategy Guidelines

Pre-announcement positioning: Consider small positions 1-2 days before delivery numbers, as leaks and speculation can drive movement.

Watch for guidance revisions: Tesla sometimes provides updated guidance along with delivery numbers, which can be more important than the headline figure.

Monitor production vs delivery gap: Large gaps between production and deliveries can indicate logistics issues or demand softness.

Regional breakdown matters: China delivery numbers are particularly scrutinized for growth and competitive dynamics.

Model mix analysis: Higher-margin Model S/X deliveries are viewed more favorably than Model 3/Y volume.

Seasonal adjustments: Q4 is typically the strongest quarter due to year-end push and tax incentives.

Options activity: Heavy options volume before announcements can amplify price movements through gamma effects.

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