Tesla's quarterly delivery and production reports are heavily scrutinized by Wall Street. The market's reaction to these numbers often sets the tone for the stock for weeks to come.
Predict potential TSLA price movement based on delivery numbers vs. expectations:
These are the critical numbers that Wall Street watches every quarter. Understanding these metrics is essential for predicting TSLA price movements:
Vehicles manufactured globally
Vehicles delivered to customers
Year-over-year comparison
Management expectations
Tesla typically follows this timeline for production and delivery announcements:
Tesla releases preliminary delivery and production numbers for the quarter, usually within the first few days of the new quarter.
Wall Street analysts update their models and price targets based on the delivery numbers. This can drive continued price movement.
More detailed production and delivery data by model and region becomes available through various sources and Tesla updates.
Delivery numbers are put into context during the quarterly earnings call, with guidance for the next quarter.
Track Tesla's delivery growth and market reactions over recent quarters:
| Quarter | Deliveries | vs Estimate | YoY Growth | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 508,000 | +1.6% | +24% | +5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 495,000 | +2.3% | +22% | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | 478,000 | -1.2% | +18% | -3.8% |
| Q4 2024 | 510,000 | +3.5% | +28% | +9.4% |
| Q3 2024 | 410,000 | -2.1% | +19% | -6.7% |
Understanding how TSLA typically reacts to different delivery scenarios:
When deliveries exceed Wall Street estimates by 2%+, TSLA typically sees strong positive reaction, especially if growth rate is accelerating.
Meeting estimates usually results in modest movement. Direction depends on guidance, margins, and forward-looking commentary.
Missing delivery estimates often triggers sharp selloffs, particularly if it suggests demand issues or production problems.